By James Saft Thu Feb 2, 2012 3:59pm EST (Reuters) - Income investors have an uneasy feeling. After a year of out-performance they are now fellow travelers with their polar opposites - momentum buyers. The risk, at least in the near term, is that what comes into fashion can easily go out of fashion, accentuating the under-performance income shares may suffer if the equity rally continues.There couldn't be a stronger contrast between the two groups. Income investors, long derided in the United States as an overly cautious lot, tend to be value-oriented and do not trade in and out of positions very frequently. Momentum players, on the other hand, simply pile into what is hot with an eye to getting out before a given investment goes cold.Strong out-performance among dividend shares has attracted the momentum crowd, as reflected both in share price movements and in a growing number of income-oriented investment vehicles. They have also attracted people seeking defensive investments because they take a view that equities will do poorly.Overall, high yielding shares in the United States returned 10.4 percent last year, against a loss of 0.6 percent in the broader market, according to Societe Generale data. If you look only at low-volatility shares with large dividends, the out-performance is even, with those shares returning 15.7 percent for the year.Globally, dividend shares still did well, although it was a matter of losing less, with high-yielding shares down 5.4 percent, about half the loss in the broader market.That showing has drawn new investors, just like every out-performance of the past, driving share prices up and sucking in still more "hot" money."There are lots of people out there buying dividend-yielding stocks but not holding on to them long enough to actually collect the dividend," Andrew Lapthorne, global head of quantitative strategy at Societe Generale in London, quips.Lapthorne compares the potential for a de-rating of dividend shares to the situation with gold last year. Gold was often marketed as a hedge against inflation, against currency debasement - indeed against almost anything someone might fear. As it rose, however, it attracted momentum money, leaving it vulnerable to a reversal that disappointed investors who naively assumed its hedging properties were somehow magical.Dividend investors should, and generally do, see the asset class as a long-term investment rather than shares that can outperform in all weathers. Still, a strong January in global stocks has caused dividend and low-volatility stocks to lag, setting up a potential period of unpopularity.A COLD WINTERIn January high-yielding U.S. stocks returned 3.7 percent, underperforming the 6.1 percent return of the broad market and less than half the return of low-yielding shares. Another couple of months like that, and we could easily see momentum money flee."The risk is that investors overplay the dividend theme and end up buying stocks that overly rely on a declining equity market for a continuation of out performance," Lapthorne said. "However, the correct combination of above-average quality and dividend yield, in our view, provides a strategy that should be pursued every year and not simply as some kind of momentum-style play."In other words, dividends are not just for protection in down markets, but are one of the main drivers of long-term stock performance, especially when investors screen for higher-quality dividend payers. That's important because it provides safety in a downturn.In fact, looking at U.S. equity returns since 1970, dividends and dividend growth have accounted for well over half of returns, with multiple expansion accounting for only a modest portion.That's ironic, give that dividends have become, at least until the current malaise, less and less popular in the U.S. In 1970 more than 90 percent of U.S. publicly traded companies paid a dividend, now that figure is only a bit over 70 percent, with glamour stocks like Apple over-represented among the non-payers.That's in part because high-growth companies argue that they reinvest profits to continue growing. But it is also, at least in part, sometimes driven by an empire-building attitude on the part of management.There are also really good secular reasons to think that some of the new money to come into income investment is here for the long haul. Low interest rates could be a feature for years, as shown by the Federal Reserve's prediction last week that conditions will justify keeping rates ultra-low until at least late 2014. And investors are only slowly realizing the increased amount of risk they bear as holders of government bonds.That means there will be plenty of yield-hungry investors, not just opting for dividend paying stocks instead of Apple, but sometimes instead of Treasuries.In a sustained equity rally, dividend stocks will likely lag. But for those of us who can't predict the future, they are a good choice, rain or shine.(Editing by Jennifer Merritt) Бесплатные советники на форекс.